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APPENDIX C: THE FIRST YEAR


It is possible to calculate from completed questionnaires, by month, the
number of members that have "been around" a given number of months. This
relies on the question that determines the month and year that the
respondent first came to A.A.

The calculation has been performed for the twelve months of the first year
for the five surveys, and the results are plotted in Figure C-1.  Such
results can be interpreted to show the probability that a member will
remain in the Fellowship a given number of months.

To be more explicit: if all the members who report they have been in the
Fellowship for less than a month were still present a month later, then
the number who report being in A.A. between one and two months should
equal the number that report being in less than a month, subject, of
course, to month-to-month fluctuations and to any possible seasonal
effects.  The same should apply to succeeding months.

However, it is observed that there is a steady decline, (subject to
inevitable fluctuations).

This has been the case for each of the five surveys we are reporting on,
and the remarkable similarity of results for the surveys is shown in
Figure C-1, where all five are plotted on a single scale by taking into
account the size of each survey.  That figure also tabulates the average
over the five surveys, and that average strongly suggests that about half
those who come to A.A. are gone within three months.  Unfortunately there
seems to be no way in which the reasons for departure can be determined.

It seems impossible that such a systematic effect could be achieved by any
mechanism other than a slow attrition of newcomers during the first year.
It is little comfort to suggest that many who leave return later, because
those who have done that are already counted in the numbers shown here.

After the first year, survey results show that attrition continues, but at
a much slower rate.   During such years it is likely that many whose
activity in A.A. diminishes remain sober but are no longer adequately
represented in the sample.

It is not part of the survey to attempt to determine the causes of this
phenomenon beyond noting that suggestions would include individuals sent
against their will, individuals who are not convinced of their alcoholism,
individuals who are unable to accept one or another characteristic of the
A.A. program, etc.  But it does appear that this result and its implied
challenge to A.A. should be widely understood in the Fellowship.

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