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APPENDIX G

PROGRESS IN THE FELLOWSHIP


Introduction

As remarked elsewhere in this document, there is a great deal of
information about the A.A. Fellowship implicit in the raw data.  An
earlier example is the findings regarding survival in the first year, in
Appendix C.

In this Appendix some further results regarding progress of members in
the Fellowship are described.  The data allows some rough inferences to
be made, illustrated by statements such as:

     About 40% of the members sober less than a year will remain sober
     and active in the Fellowship another year.

     Similarly, of the members sober five years, about 90% will remain
     sober and active in the Fellowship another year.

There is one extremely important qualification of such statements.  They
do not predict the number that will remain sober.   Those that remain
sober but do not remain active in the Fellowship cannot be estimated from
our data.  The statements only give lower limits to the number that will
remain sober.

We use the term survival rate to describe this joint characteristic of
sobriety and activity in the Fellowship.

Progress in the Fellowship

To describe how such approximations can be arrived at, Figure 1 is
presented.  The raw data in the Figure are the percentages of the 1989
sample that have been sober the indicated number of years, indicated by
open circles connected by dotted lines.  The corrected data (as will be
described) are shown in solid circles and connected by solid lines.

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